Posts tagged "Brexit"

BOTTOM-LINE BREXIT – PART XI

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

Don’t ‘sell in May and go away’

The old City stockbroker’s adage, dating back to a leisured age of top hats and spongebag trousers, has had an airing in Brussels since the pre-Easter summit which pushed Brexit back as far as Oct. 31. But beware. Plenty can happen in the coming months, and probably will. “Now it gets ugly,” warns one top EU diplomat closely engaged in the negotiations with the United Kingdom.

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BOTTOM-LINE BREXIT PART X

 

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

No deal no way?

After the “flextension” to Oct. 31, granted by the EU27 in the early hours of Thursday, the risk of a no-deal, transitionless Brexit has been pushed back from April 12. The UK political situation remains extremely unclear and so the risk of no deal remains, possibly as early as June 1. However, if the UK holds an election on May 23, as is now scheduled in the UK electoral calendar, no deal will not be possible until Oct. 31. As significant, we believe, is that the behaviour of member states at the summit indicates a significant reduction in the risk that the EU will simply accept a no-deal outcome.

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BOTTOM-LINE BREXIT PART IX

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

Don’t despair of a deal

In a follow-up to our latest update, which still holds good, Friday’s bit of choreography between EU summit chair Donald Tusk and British Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of next Wednesday’s latest “crunch” summit is intriguing. The former Polish premier has long been a diehard supporter of giving Britons the chance to back out of Brexit but his offer of a year-long “flextension” to the Article 50 withdrawal process is far from popular with EU leaders – the French were quick to brand it “clumsy” – and should be read more as a bit of help from Brussels to May’s efforts, still, to rally a parliamentary majority behind her exit deal so Britain can leave the EU soon.

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Bottom-Line Brexit Part VIII

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

Plus ça change…

Talk of Britain being dumped out of the European Union next Friday seems overblown. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is still very real and carries with it a sudden reintroduction of customs controls and questions over mutual regulatory recognition. But there is still little appetite among EU leaders – who will meet British Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels on Wednesday – to pull the trigger on hard Brexit. Not just yet.

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Bottom-Line Brexit Part VII

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

        Still fog in Channel, continent in the dark

The bottom line from Brussels this week is that little has changed since the EU summit last Friday. Unless Prime Minister Theresa May can overturn two previous heavy defeats for her Brexit treaty in parliament, Britain could be leaving the EU without a deal, engendering substantial trade and other business disruption, as early as Friday, April 12.

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EU leaders in Bratislava look beyond Brexit

After a summer spent processing the pain of Britain’s June referendum vote to leave their club, European Union leaders resolved at their summit last Friday in Bratislava to move beyond Brexit and chart a path towards a more citizen-friendly union.

The 27 leaders – meeting without Britain’s prime minister, Theresa May, who was not invited – insisted they remained united at their summit, called to brainstorm ways to connect with ordinary people.

It was, they recognised, a daunting challenge. Brexit is just the latest of a series of crises to hit the EU in recent years, following the ongoing refugee influx, a sluggish European economy, and a collapse in voter trust for the EU establishment.

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Referendum reaction

European Union leaders

Martin Schulz, President of the European Parliament, Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, Mark Rutte, Holder of the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU, and Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, issued a joint statement on the outcome of the referendum.

The said that they “regret this decision but respect it. This is an unprecedented situation but we are united in our response. We will stand strong and uphold the EU’s core values of promoting peace and the well-being of its peoples. The Union of 27 Member States will continue.”

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Britain backs Brexit, Cameron to resign

Britain has spoken – and it has voted to leave the European Union, bringing an end to the premiership of David Cameron.

The sensational result – which confounded the eve-of-poll opinion polls and the betting markets – was announced early on Friday morning.

Click for referendum reaction

52% of voters elected to Leave the European Union, while 48% opted to Remain. With a high turnout of 72%, early indications suggest that the Eurosceptic vote by blue-collar Labour voters has far exceeded expectations and proven a pivotal factor in the outcome.

So what happens next? While this unprecedented vote means no-one really knows, here are six things to look for over the coming days and weeks.

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Cameron looks to secure legacy as referendum campaign kicks off

Europe has been an issue that has dominated British politics for decades.

The question of the UK’s membership of the EU has been the subject of major swings in public opinion and a constant theme in general elections.

Successive governments have been forced to defend their record in key negotiations with their European counterparts, to frequent and prominent public criticism.

Read more on the Burson-Marsteller UK blog

Words  David Mitchell (Burson-Marsteller UK, London)
Photo  CC/Flickr number10gov