Posts tagged "United Kingdom"

BOTTOM-LINE BREXIT PART X

 

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

No deal no way?

After the “flextension” to Oct. 31, granted by the EU27 in the early hours of Thursday, the risk of a no-deal, transitionless Brexit has been pushed back from April 12. The UK political situation remains extremely unclear and so the risk of no deal remains, possibly as early as June 1. However, if the UK holds an election on May 23, as is now scheduled in the UK electoral calendar, no deal will not be possible until Oct. 31. As significant, we believe, is that the behaviour of member states at the summit indicates a significant reduction in the risk that the EU will simply accept a no-deal outcome.

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BOTTOM-LINE BREXIT PART IX

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

Don’t despair of a deal

In a follow-up to our latest update, which still holds good, Friday’s bit of choreography between EU summit chair Donald Tusk and British Prime Minister Theresa May ahead of next Wednesday’s latest “crunch” summit is intriguing. The former Polish premier has long been a diehard supporter of giving Britons the chance to back out of Brexit but his offer of a year-long “flextension” to the Article 50 withdrawal process is far from popular with EU leaders – the French were quick to brand it “clumsy” – and should be read more as a bit of help from Brussels to May’s efforts, still, to rally a parliamentary majority behind her exit deal so Britain can leave the EU soon.

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Bottom-Line Brexit Part VIII

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

Plus ça change…

Talk of Britain being dumped out of the European Union next Friday seems overblown. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is still very real and carries with it a sudden reintroduction of customs controls and questions over mutual regulatory recognition. But there is still little appetite among EU leaders – who will meet British Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels on Wednesday – to pull the trigger on hard Brexit. Not just yet.

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Bottom-Line Brexit Part VII

What business needs to know about how Brussels sees the process of Britain leaving the European Union, as related to BCW by senior EU sources.

        Still fog in Channel, continent in the dark

The bottom line from Brussels this week is that little has changed since the EU summit last Friday. Unless Prime Minister Theresa May can overturn two previous heavy defeats for her Brexit treaty in parliament, Britain could be leaving the EU without a deal, engendering substantial trade and other business disruption, as early as Friday, April 12.

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